US Outlook 2025: New Policies, Similar Path

Our US economists in Goldman Sachs Research expect policy changes proposed by the incoming administration to not substantially alter the trajectory of the economy or monetary policy. They forecast GDP growth to beat expectations at 2.5% in 2025, and for rate cuts to continue through Q1 before the Fed slows the pace toward the end of the cutting cycle. Their 12-month recession probability remains low at 15%.