Goldman Sachs Ayco Insights

Quarterly Market Update

Mariam Kamshad, head of portfolio strategy and investments for Goldman Sachs Wealth Services, reviews key macroeconomic factors at the outset of the fourth quarter of 2026 that could impact the market and investor portfolios in the months ahead:

This quarter’s market environment was characterized by uncertainty around policy, rates, and geopolitics. Yet, equity markets continued to climb higher.

In this video, Mariam Kamshad, head of portfolio strategy and investments for Goldman Sachs Wealth Services, discusses key factors that impacted the market over the quarter and the Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group’s (ISG) outlook for the months ahead.

Key Topics

1
Higher Rates (:24)
Long-term Treasury yields recently reached their highest levels in over two decades as the market anticipated a more hawkish Fed due to elevated inflation and stronger growth expectations.
2
Fed Task Forces (1:54)
New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has launched five reform task forces. Learn why ISG believes any meaningful policy shifts are likely to be gradual.
3
Strong US Earnings Growth (2:52)
The S&P 500 delivered year-over-year earnings growth of over 50% in the second quarter. Mariam explains why.
4
Midterm Elections (3:43)
ISG believes midterm elections are likely to result in a divided government. Discover why this could be a market-friendly outcome.
5
Geopolitical Risks (4:24)
Mariam outlines the geopolitical risks which ISG believes warrant investor vigilance.

“

Analyzing market returns since 1928, our Investment Strategy Group found that in non-recessionary periods, equity returns were higher under divided governments. Since we only place a 20% probability of recession in the next twelve months, we believe a divided government could be supportive of the equity market.”

Mariam Kamshad

Head of Portfolio Strategy and Investments, Goldman Sachs Wealth Services

If you have questions about how the perspectives shared in this market update impact your financial portfolio, connect with your Goldman Sachs team.

Past performance is not indicative of future result, which may vary. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. These forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change.

Investment Strategy Group. The Investment Strategy Group, part of the Asset & Wealth Management business (“AWM”) of Goldman Sachs, focuses on asset allocation strategy formation and market analysis for GS Wealth Management. Forecasts expressed are based on material assumptions subject to change, and should not be interpreted as providing guarantees Any information that references ISG represents the views of ISG, is not financial research, and is not a product of GS Global Investment Research (“GIR”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management and may vary significantly from views expressed by individual portfolio management teams within AWM, or other groups at Goldman Sachs.

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Advisory services offered by Goldman Sachs Wealth Services, L.P. (the “Adviser”), a registered investment adviser, affiliate of Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC ("GS&Co."), and a subsidiary of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a worldwide, full-service investment banking, broker-dealer, asset management, and financial services organization. Goldman Sachs Ayco is a brand of Goldman Sachs Wealth Services, L.P. Brokerage services are offered through GS&Co. and Mercer Allied Company, L.P. (a limited purpose broker-dealer), both affiliates of the Adviser and members FINRA/SIPC.

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