Goldman Sachs Ayco Insights

Market Spotlight

Oil prices have moved higher and global tensions remain elevated, but the US economy, corporate earnings, and the labor market continue to show resilience. With the midterm elections now behind us, what’s ahead as 2026 comes to a close?

In this video, Goldman Sachs Ayco’s Immanuel Tan highlights the key economic factors driving today’s markets.

Key Topics

1
Geopolitics (00:18)
Financial markets are reacting to geopolitical tension with higher energy prices. We explain why the US economy has continued to show strength.
2
US Recession Probability (00:37)
The Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group estimates a 20% probability of a US recession over the next 12 months. We explore why and what it means for inflation.
3
US Equities (01:26)
Corporate earnings remain the primary anchor for US equities, with profit margins near record highs. With the midterm elections now behind us, we also look at what a divided government could mean for equities.

Despite near-term uncertainties, Immanuel outlines the Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group’s 2026 forecasts (3:40).

“

The US economy has remained remarkably resilient, with a stable labor market and strong household balance sheets supporting consumer spending.”

Immanuel Tan

Goldman Sachs Ayco

If you have questions about how the perspectives shared in this market update impact your financial portfolio, connect with your Goldman Sachs team.

Past performance is not indicative of future result, which may vary. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. These forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change.

Investment Strategy Group. The Investment Strategy Group, part of the Asset & Wealth Management business (“AWM”) of Goldman Sachs, focuses on asset allocation strategy formation and market analysis for GS Wealth Management. Forecasts expressed are based on material assumptions subject to change, and should not be interpreted as providing guarantees Any information that references ISG represents the views of ISG, is not financial research, and is not a product of GS Global Investment Research (“GIR”) or Goldman Sachs Asset Management and may vary significantly from views expressed by individual portfolio management teams within AWM, or other groups at Goldman Sachs.

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Advisory services offered by Goldman Sachs Wealth Services, L.P. (the “Adviser”), a registered investment adviser, affiliate of Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC ("GS&Co."), and a subsidiary of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a worldwide, full-service investment banking, broker-dealer, asset management, and financial services organization. Goldman Sachs Ayco is a brand of Goldman Sachs Wealth Services, L.P. Brokerage services are offered through GS&Co. and Mercer Allied Company, L.P. (a limited purpose broker-dealer), both affiliates of the Adviser and members FINRA/SIPC.

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